Predicting election results for the Danish National Parliament

Challenge

DR is the country's largest media company and, as part of the overall strategy, wants to involve the people's voice in relation to current political issues and the ongoing status of the power balance between the parties. In connection with the elections to the National Parliament, the European Parliament and referendums, DR wants to present the Danes for an exit poll on the election evening, as soon as the election process is completed.

Approach

Since 2005, Epinion has supplied political polls to DR. On a monthly basis we make a political index with details on voter affiliation to the various parties, voter changes and insight into how popular the various political leaders are in the population. DR also requests polls in connection with, for example, new political initiatives, political trends in general and issues of considerable public interest. Running these polls often require fast turnaround times and always great thoroughness and precision. In connection with elections, Epinion conducts exit polls, which is typically based on 4-5.000 interviews collected on the actual election day with voters who have already cast their vote.

Resolution

The polling results from Epinion is broadcasted by DR to a large part of the population and are also often quoted in other Danish media. DR and Epinion has during the last three elections/referendums been able to present the most accurate predictions of the election result.

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